I have lived long enough on this ball to know that all politics is NOW. Not the future, not even tomorrow. Just the course to satisfy the instant. That is what got us into Iraq in the first place. We had the tools, we had the reasons, we had the excuse of 911. So we all jumped off the cliff and are now trying to figure out how not to get splattered. I listened to the eloquent, intelligent debate from both sides on the floor of the Senate. I heard very little imperious flag waving on the part of the Republicans and heard little grand standing on the part of the Democrats. Mainly I heard a bunch of men and women basically saying to each other, “Yeah things pretty messed up…so what should we do?”
For myself I have had another phase shift in my own thinking on Iraq and where we are in the world. Pulling out of Iraq a year ago or 2 years ago is not the same equation as pulling out now. Staying is bad, pulling out may be worse. Here is one scenario that I view as possible, based on my knowledge of history:
We leave Iraq in the state it is now.
Reaction:
IRAQ: Shiite militants will dominated Iraq, Sadr will be the defacto leader with a puppet government beholden to him. Previous leadership will either be killed or flee. Sunni groups will be viciously repressed with methods that are being used now, just on a larger scale. Kurds will be forced to declare independence. This will cause Turkey to go on high alert.
EU: Extreme trepidation over what the force vacuum in Iraq will mean for stable oil prices and spread of militancy.
UK: Labor government will fall to conservatives
IRAN: Between a rock and a hard place it will be forced to significantly aid Sadr . It will also use this a justification for such aid and become the main military benefactor of Iraq.
CHINA: More liberal with anti-Taiwanese-independence rhetoric. Basically more saber rattling.
Russia: Happy. However also very nervous since so much of their own territory is prone to Islamic militancy.
Broader Mid East: The joy in the streets will last a few weeks and then settle back down into impoverished depression. Fear in the governments of Egypt et al over what the deadly brew in Iraq will do once it spills out. Probably increased arms expenditures by Syria, Egypt and of course Israel. Israel will probably see its own roll as airborne enforcer.
US: We will still have an air presence over Iraq, and have large number of forces in Kuwait. Though Kuwait may be nervous that the problems in Iraq might spill into their own country. Democrats will win White House but then lose it in the 2012 election.
Bin Laden: Busy with his own agenda
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